Over the course of this year’s eligibility period, eleven songs reached the top spot on the Billboard Hot 100. Of those 11 songs, one of them was Mariah Carey’s holiday classic “All I Want For Christmas Is You,” and another was Glass Animals’ “Heat Waves,” which is not eligible for the upcoming ceremony. Given the historical connection between Hot 100 success and Record of the Year nominations, it’s completely plausible that all ten spots go to a song that has topped the Hot 100 in the past calendar year (even if the track may not have hit No. 1 until after the eligibility period ended). Nonetheless, this is the Grammys, and curveballs are the name of the game. For example, did anyone see it coming that ABBA would score their first career Grammy nomination by way of a Record of the Year (“I Still Have Faith In You”) nod for a song that made absolutely no Stateside commercial impact? Exactly.

As a reminder, Record of the Year is awarded to the artists, producers, engineers, and mixers. Song of the Year is awarded to the songwriter(s) who created the lyrics and melodies of the composition.

Sure Bets

Beyoncé is currently tied with Frank Sinatra as the artist with the most Record of the Year nominations in Grammys history (7). I would be gobsmacked if “Break My Soul,” the Hot 100-topping lead single from Renaissance, did not lift her to a record-breaking eighth nomination in this category. Similarly, Adele, a two-time winner in the category who actually beat Beyoncé here in 2017, will more than likely score a nod for “Easy on Me,” the Hot 100-topping lead single from 30.

Two other Hot 100 No. 1 singles, “As It Was” (Harry Styles) and “About Damn Time” (Lizzo), are also the closest thing we have to locks in this category. The former dominated this year and became the longest-running Hot 100 No. 1 single from a soloist in Billboard history, and the latter became Lizzo’s first chart-topper since “Truth Hurts” which earned a ROTY nod back in 2020. There’s also “Bad Habit” (Steve Lacy), another Hot 100-topper that reached No. 1 the week after the eligibility period closed. It’s safe to say the song made enough of an impact during the eligibility period to secure a spot in the Final 10.

Strong Shots

“You And Me On the Rock” (Brandi Carlile) and “The Heart Part 5” (Kendrick Lamar) could help two former ROTY nominees return to the competition this year. Hip-hop could also have a strong showing in this category come Nominations Day if the Grammys feel up to recognizing “First Class” (Jack Harlow) and “Wait For U” (Future, Drake & Tems). Both songs debuted atop the Hot 100 and proved to have admirable staying power. Nonetheless, neither Jack nor Future has made it to the General Field off the strength of their own music, so the Academy could very well ignore them as they have in the past. “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” is looking to follow in the footsteps of ROTY-nominated Disney animated soundtrack anthems such as “A Whole New World” and “Beauty and the Beast.” If “Let It Go” failed to secure a nomination here back in 2014, I don’t have incredibly high hopes for “Bruno.” However, the overall momentum behind Latin music in 2022 coupled with the song’s lengthy stay at No. 1 and streaming success could result in a nom here.

And then there’s the Taylor Swift question. Again. “All Too Well (10 Minute Version)” (Taylor Swift) has been deemed eligible for contention, but outside of new lyrics and a few melodic differences in the latter half of the song, it’s largely the same track from 2012. It’ll all come down to what the voters feel like doing with a re-recording. The song isn’t necessarily a cover nor is it a completely new original recording, so we may just have to wait and see on this one.

Sleeper Picks

A couple of holdovers from last year that maintained steady commercial success — “Woman” (Doja Cat), “My Universe” (Coldplay & BTS), and “Shivers” (Ed Sheeran) — could make it into the Final 10, but voters may feel like they’re old news. ABBA could be back in contention with “Don’t Shut Me Down,” and Latto could surprise with “Big Energy (Live)” or even Billie Eilish with “TV.” Speaking of female rappers, Nicki Minaj could earn her first General Field nomination for her own work since her 2012 Best New Artist nod with “Super Freaky Girl.” The song’s already been embroiled in Grammy controversy thanks to the hoopla around its genre placement (the song will compete in Best Pop Solo Performance despite Nicki rapping for the track’s entire runtime), which will likely not work in her favor. Joji could also surprise with “Glimpse of Us,” although a Song of the Year nomination makes more sense. “Something in the Orange” (Zach Bryan) and “abcdefu” (GAYLE) have the potential to inject some new blood into a race filled with veterans and familiar faces.

But what do we do with Bad Bunny? If there was a singular dominant song from Un Verano Sin Ti, it was “Tití Me Preguntó,” but that song was only submitted for consideration in Song of the Year. Benito and his team opted to submit “Después de la Playa” for Record of the Year, but I’m not as convinced that the song has a strong shot to show up in the Final 10. If the Academy decides to go all in for Bad Bunny, it’ll probably get the nod. What’s more likely, I think, is Un Verano Sin Ti showing up in AOTY and “Tití Me Preguntó” pulling off a sleeper SOTY nom — if they nominate him in the General Field at all.

Final Predictions

“Break My Soul” (Beyoncé)

“Easy On Me” (Adele)

“As It Was” (Harry Styles)

“The Heart Part 5” (Kendrick Lamar)

“About Damn Time” (Lizzo)

“Bad Habit” (Steve Lacy)

“We Don’t Talk About Bruno” (Cast of Encanto)

“First Class” (Jack Harlow)

“You And Me On The Rock” (Brandi Carlile)

“My Universe” (Coldplay & BTS)

ALT: “All Too Well (10 Minute Version)” (Taylor Swit) “Wait For U” (Future, Drake & Tems)